The Academy Awards are a source of perennial frustration. Worthy movies and performances lose out to well-liked films about filmmaking that sweep multiple categories out of virtue of their popularity (The Artist, Birdman, La La Land). I mean if you ask a bunch of orthopedists if bones are important, what do you think is going to happen?

Best Picture

What will win - La La Land
What should win - Arrival

Arrival is the best piece of filmmaking along with Moonlight all year in my opinion. La La Land is also a terrific film, and honestly I should be happy with the quality of what's going to win, but, you know, SNL explains it best -

Best Actor

What will win - Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
What should win - Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Unless Denzel being Denzel is considered Oscar-worthy still.

Best Actress

What will win - Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
What should win - Amy Adams (Arrival) - not nominated

How many times will Amy Adams put up best all-time performances and be neglected by the Academy before being nominated for something less than her best and they give it to her to make up for all the times they've been wrong??? The Scorsece/Leo of this category.

Best Supporting Actor

What will win - Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
What should win - Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

If I had a drug lord dad, I would want it to be him.

Best Supporting Actress

What will win - Viola Davis (Fences)
What should win - Naomie Harris (Moonlight)

If I had crack addled mom, I would not want it to be her, oh god she is terrifying.

Best Director

What will win - Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
What should win - Really anyone but Mel Gibson (Denis Villeneuve for Arrival, Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea, Barry Jenkins for Moonlight)

Best Adapted Screenplay

What will win - Moonlight
What should win - Arrival

I mean, c'mon, this is a movie about learning a completely alien language from scratch and has a circular timeline. And it's pulled off seamlessly. I'm all about Arrival.

Best Original Screenplay

What will win - La La Land
What should win - Manchester by the Sea

Kenneth Lonergan is a master craftsman and the depth of his pathos and humour in Manchester is more moving than the non-musical parts of La La Land.

Best Animated Feature Film

What will win - Zootopia
What should win - Kubo and the Two Strings

Zootopia sends mixed messages on morality when the metaphors extend to our society (stereotypes everywhere and predators need to be contained). See my Kubo post about why it rocks.

Best Documentary

What will win - OJ: Made in America
What should win - OJ: Made in America

From ESPN's 30 for 30, this is not an extraneous OJ film, it is the essential OJ film. The societal and political influences surrounding this mentally damaged, egotistical human are striking. The pattern of abuse unimaginable. This is about how America created OJ, and it's appalling. Race relations have not really gotten much better.

Except among our furry friends.